President Trump appointed Steve Witcoff as Special Envoy to the Middle East. This signalled a change in how the United States is handling the tempestuous Middle East. Steve Witcoff is a New York developer who met Trump years ago when his firm represented Trump in development issues.

Witcoff has an outcome oriented approach to the region’s issues that starts with determining where President Trump wants to end up after all the parties negotiate. Witcoff is careful to point out that he does not presume to think what Trump wants. He asks the President what he desires and then he develops tactics that lead to the desired outcome.

Once Witcoff has received from Trump what he wants to accomplish, Witcoff begins by determining where the 3 major parties want to go in the negotiations. The 3 parties in play are the Israelis, the Qutaris and Hamas. Witcoff believes that the Qutaris are well motivated peace makers. The Qutaris and many Middle East countries are interested in a stable region.The Qutaris host a US military base and take care of all the expenses of the base.

A stable Middle East requires a security blanket from the United States. The seemingly constant acts of state sponsored terrorism cause uncertainty which leads to a lack of capital investment in the region. Many Arab states would like to leverage their oil revenue but when banks do the underwriting they are scared of the war risk.

An example would be the Houthi attacks on shipping. This creates a risk that raises the cost of borrowing money for Middle Eastern countries. Most of the countries in the region would welcome a stable regional peace that would unleash the economic potential of the area.

Trump is taking a realistic approach to the area. While the Biden administration predicted the Gaza rebuild would take 5 years, Trump, because of his development experience, knows the actual time table is 15-20 years. The complete destruction of buildings and the extensive tunnel network that has been collapsed by bunker busting bombs leaves a “swiss cheese” foundation that is problematic for building long lasting housing. Witcoff had to level-set the facts so the unrealistic approaches of Biden and the European countries could be exposed.

Israel would like a stable non-Hamas controlled government in Gaza. Hamas is intent on staying in control of the Gaza strip. Anyone who witnessed the films of the October 7 incursion understands that the horrors perpetrated by Hamas has precluded them from any role in the future. Just as the United States insisted that Nazis could not be a part of post World War II governance of Germany, Israel is insisting that the group that severed the heads of Israeli soldiers and gang raped Israeli civilians cannot be involved in the post conflict governance of Gaza.

Witcoff believes there is hope for a negotiated settlement. The military actions of the Israelis in eliminating the heads of Hamas and Hezbollah has put Iran on the defensive. The change in Syria has caused Iran to be more concerned about self preservation and less focused on destabilizing the region. These developments allow people to start imagining a different future for their children.

Fifty more years of living in refugee-like conditions is not what most Gazans want for their children. Visionaries are imaging a region of businesses taking advantage of the huge labor supply. Why could the pharmaceutical industry not manufacture drugs in Gaza?

Trump has realized that the old playbook with negotiated ceasefires that result in the same old conflicts will never allow a bright future for the region. Trump has the cache to demand action in the area. He is alert and involved in a way Biden could only dream about during his daily naptime. Trump is curious and flexible and willing to listen to all viewpoints in order to find the best way forward.

Trump is using his personality to demand a better future for the Middle East. Let’s hope his vision comes to fruition.