Pollsters Missed The Mark

Our recent election exposed the failure of American pollsters to predict the outcome of the Presidential race. The New York Times/Siena College Poll, the Cooperative Election Study (CES) poll, Selzer & Company and the NPR-Marist polls were consistent in showing more support for Kamala than actually occurred. 

How did so many polling groups miss the mark in this year’s election?

First, we know that many Republicans seem to mistrust pollsters and are more apt to ignore the phone calls. Some Republicans also seem to enjoy fooling the pollsters.

Pollsters also seem to develop their algorithms based on the prior elections. In this election, pollsters assumed that young voters would support Kamala because young people had voted 62-35% for Biden in 2020. It turned out that Kamala’s support among young voters this time was only 52-46% over Trump. This was a significant change. (It seems that the change in ownership of X may have resulted in younger voters getting more diverse sources of information)

Interestingly, I recently discussed the issue of polling with a businessman who travels extensively across our country. He did his own polling as he travelled in Uber cars across the country. He asked each driver who they were supporting in the election. Unanimously, the drivers said they were supporting Trump. This group was diverse along religious, ethnic and gender lines. 

After this election, it is apparent that most Americans do not trust pollsters. Just like our mainstream media exposed their biases by shamelessly promoting Kamala, many polling companies appear to also have been on the Kamala team. 

During this Thanksgiving week, we can celebrate a new direction for our country. I would think that all pollsters would believe that change is coming.