The Chinese surveillance balloon that slowly made its way across our country before our Defense Department reacted reminds us that while Vladimir Putin may grab the headlines, our greatest military threat is a resurgent China. Putin blustered and threatened many countries with his military power but he recently overplayed his hand and imitated the Wizard of Oz who ultimately was exposed as an ordinary man without supernatural powers.

China, under President Xi, has chartered a course to dominate the new world order. Being inferior to the United States in the world rankings is no longer acceptable to China. President Xi believes that the United States has become a decadent society that allows civil unrest and political confrontations which weaken its power.

Xi is not stymied by opposing political parties and as a result his vision for China dominates the political landscape. By increasing investment in the military, China has managed to field the largest naval force on the high seas. China also maintains the largest standing army in the world. China has also developed stealth military technology that is similar to US technology and China appears to have passed the US in hypersonic weapons technology.

The US military is forced to operate around the whole world to protect democracy. China, on the other hand, has focused its military investment in the Pacific and the South China Sea. Its military is dominant in that geographic arena and it is worrisome for the surrounding governments.

Today, China seems to be ready to assert itself outside of the Pacific region. The surveillance balloon is a metaphor for China’s attempts to dominate the United States. By sending this balloon on a slow arc across our country, President Xi is signaling to the feckless Biden administration that while the US military is focusing on gender issues and global warming, China is focused on global dominance.

History, though, has given us examples of authoritarian regimes that developed military power but eventually lost their dominance because of their economic decline. The Soviet Union was able to dominate its citizens politically and develop military power in the last century. The very forces that allowed the Soviet hierarchy to dominate their society also worked to repress the entrepreneurial spirit could have thrived in the Soviet Union. The top-down control of the economy prevented the Soviet Union from becoming an economic powerhouse. Eventually, the economic decline led to a decline in Soviet military strength.

China, before President Xi assumed office, allowed the business community to grow and evolve away from the communist model. This led to economic growth that allowed China to compete with the United States in the economic arena.

President Xi, however, like most US college professors, actually believes the Marxist manifesto and has instituted regulations to depress the power of the Chinese business community. He believes that if the business community is successful it will eventually jettison the communist principles that he so passionately endorses. Xi has reinstated a strict top-down state dominance of the Chinese economy. As a result, the Chinese Communist Party now controls the economy.

Over the next decade, I believe that China’s economic growth will stall and as a result the citizens will grow restless for political reforms. President Xi will respond by creating confrontations with the United States and other western powers. He will use these confrontations to rally support for his continued power.

The surveillance balloon is just another attempt by President Xi to create tension in the world and shore up his popularity at home that was threatened by the Chinese public’s irritation with his Zero-Covid policies.

Let’s pray that the US can carefully navigate the prickly relationship with Xi over the next decade.