2023-24 college football bowl games: Top confidence picks, pool predictions, computer simulation rankings

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The 2023-24 college football bowl schedule begins on Saturday with a six-game slate. All six of those contests feature college football bowl spreads of one touchdown or tighter, making them tricky games to rank with college football bowl confidence picks. The first double-digit favorite in the college football bowl odds from SportsLine consensus is UTSA, which is a 10-point favorite against Marshall in the Frisco Bowl on Dec. 19. Where should you list that game in your college football bowl confidence pools?

Attaining a perfect record during bowl season is almost impossible, but winning the picks at the top of your confidence rankings will set you up for success. Which teams can you trust with your 2023-24 college football bowl confidence strategy? Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don’t miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine

Top college football bowl confidence predictions

One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens. The Bulldogs have been the most trustworthy team in college football over the past three seasons, winning 29 of their last 30 games. Their 29-game winning streak was snapped in a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the model projects 

The Seminoles are playing without star quarterback Jordan Travis (injury) and one of their top wide receivers in Johnny Wilson, who opted out of this game. Backup quarterbacks Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn have not been impressive in relief, combining for less than 200 total passing yards in wins over Florida and Louisville. They are facing one of the top defenses in the country in the Orange Bowl, which is why Georgia is winning in almost 80% of the model’s simulations. 

Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. Kansas State was one of the top offensive teams in college football this season, ranked No. 10 in points per game (37.8). Senior quarterback Will Howard entered the transfer portal and will not play, but freshman quarterback Avery Johnson had 301 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions this season while rushing for 217 yards and six more scores. 

Sophomore running back DJ Giddens provides balance to the offense, rushing for 1,075 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. NC State does not have nearly enough offensive firepower to keep pace, averaging less than 27 points per game. SportsLine’s model expects the Wolfpack to come up short of their season average in this contest, which is one reason why Kansas State is winning in nearly 70% of simulations. See all of the model’s college football bowl confidence picks here.

How to make college football bowl confidence picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine

So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out. 

2023-24 college football bowl schedule

See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine

Saturday, Dec. 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ETNew Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ETCure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ETNew Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ETLA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ETIndependence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noonBirmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noonArmed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ETIdaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ETLas Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ETHawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ETFirst Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ETGuaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ETDuke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ETHoliday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ETTexas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ETPinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ETPop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ETAlamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ETSun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ETLiberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ETCotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ETMusic City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ETOrange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ETArizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ETCitrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ETFiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ETRose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ETSugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET

Monday, Jan. 8

CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET


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