Quick Bit: The 2022/23 Premier League season begins anew on Friday as Crystal Palace host Arsenal at Selhurst Park, and the matchup offers up some interesting betting angles to kick things off. Here are our picks and best bets.
The 2022/23 Premier League season begins anew on Friday, Aug. 5 as Crystal Palace host Arsenal at Selhurst Park.
The matchup is the first of the new Premier League campaign, with the rest of Matchweek 1 kicking off on Saturday and Sunday.
It’s the second straight season that Arsenal are on the road to open the Premier League slate, having lost at Brentford in last season’s league opener. This season, the Gunners are given another difficult matchup at a Crystal Palace side that has given them fits over recent years.
Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira will look to provide further misery for his former club as Arsenal prepare for a promising season that see fans hopeful of a return to the Champions League.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal betting odds
Arsenal are heavy favorites in the match, with Crystal Palace not getting much of a boost for recent positive results against the Gunners.
The 2.5 goal total is quite balanced, with the over just a very slight favorite at some bookmakers and dead even for others.
On the spread, Arsenal are determined to be about 0.75 goals better than Crystal Palace, and therefore are slight favorites on the half-goal line.
Crystal Palace win
Both teamsto score Y / N
-130 / +105
-135 / -115
8/11 – 1/1
Over / Under2.5 goals
-105 / -110
-110 / -120
5/6 – 5/6
Crystal Palace +0.5
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction
Arsenal are a much improved side from last year, and that will show over the course of the Premier League season. I even picked them to sneak into the Top 4 when it’s all said and done.
However, I can’t back the Gunners in the Premier League season opener. Yes, Crystal Palace are thought to be bottom-half finishers this season, and yes, Arsenal are a much better team. But every club has their bogey team.
The Eagles are just that to Arsenal. Over their last eight meetings, all in the Premier League, Arsenal have won just once, while Palace have won twice, plus five draws. Go back even further, and Arsenal have won just four times in the last 13 games between these two clubs, with three wins for Crystal Palace. Those three Crystal Palace wins have come within the last six seasons.
Arsenal were one half of the season-opening match last season as well, and the Gunners fell to an emotionally charged Brentford side, back in the Premier League after 74 years.
With all these factors at play it’s hard to pick Arsenal. Crystal Palace against the spread (if available in your territory) to hedge against a likely draw.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal best bets & expert analysis
With a competitive and evenly matched Premier League season opener, there are several ways to tackle this match from a betting perspective.
Below are a few suggestions, including a couple of prop bets to look at.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal best bet
While Arsenal can occasionally struggle against Crystal Palace, it’s usually on the defensive side, and not up front.
In nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams, the over 2.5 goals has come in. That includes both matches last season with former Arsenal great Patrick Vieira in charge of Palace. Those ended in a 2-2 draw at the Emirates in Matchweek 8, and a 3-0 win for Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park in Matchweek 31.
Since those games, both sides have improved slightly defensively, but not enough to truly move the needle. William Saliba looks a talent for Arsenal, but he will still need time to develop a partnership with Gabriel, while Chris Richards is a young American project who may not start right away for Palace.
Given that Arsenal look an especially improved attacking side with the white-hot Gabriel Jesus (more on him in a moment), expect this match to be an exciting opener to the Premier League season, with goals aplenty.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-107 on Sports Interaction)
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prop kicker: Goal scored interval
When Crystal Palace and Arsenal meet, things can get interesting in the final quarter of the match.
Across last year’s two league meetings, goals were scored in the 73rd minute, 74th minute, and 95th minute. In the previous campaign, Arsenal snatched a late 3-1 victory at Selhurst Park with two stoppage-time goals, while Crystal Palace somehow managed to hang for a 1-1 draw at the Emirates despite going a man down in the 67th minute.
Statistically, the most goals are scored and conceded by all teams in the final 15-minute interval as defenses tire, and while these two teams aren’t more susceptible than others, they’re also not terribly adept at bucking the trend either.
Last season, Arsenal scored 18 percent of their goals in the 76-90 min range, with two intervals owning a higher total, while the Gunners conceded 21 percent of goals in the final 15 minutes, the highest of any interval.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, scored 26 percent of their goals in the final 15 minutes of games, which was tied with three teams for fifth-highest. On the other end, the Eagles conceded 24 percent of goals in that timeframe, ranking in the middle of the pack.
In last year’s season opener, Arsenal conceded a second to Brentford in the 73rd minute to seal the game, before whiffing on nine shot attempts in a frenzied attempt to get on the board.
Expect some late fireworks in this year’s season opener, which should provide plenty of excitement for the 2022/23 campaign to come.
Prop kicker: Goal Scored between 76th minute & Full Time (+100 on DraftKings)
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prop flier: Player to score & assist
Gabriel Jesus has been on fire to start his Arsenal career, scoring a massive seven goals in Arsenal’s five preseason matches, including a hat-trick against Sevilla in the final tuneup match in late July.
After being used sparingly at Man City, unable to find a consistent role within that squad, the Brazilian is unquestionably the main goalscoring threat at Arsenal and is thriving with tactical consistency. He’s a great pick to win the Premier League Golden Boot this season (though ultimately I think Darwin Nunez edges him out).
However, because of that incredible recent form, Jesus has pretty miserable odds to score in the match, at around just +180 (or about 9/5). Those odds can be pushed significantly higher by adding an assist to the projected haul.
While Jesus wasn’t exactly known for his playmaking prowess at Man City, he did improve in that regard in almost every single season at the Etihad. In his final year under Pep Guardiola, Jesus compiled 5.91 xA (expected assists), which was 2.31 better than any previous season at Man City.
Now in a new role at Arsenal with far more freedom, he should see a further increase in his playmaking impact, especially if he starts alongside rejuvenated goal hawk Eddie Nketiah or a Nicolas Pepe playing with a chip on his shoulder.
Prop flier: Gabriel Jesus to score & assist (+1600)
Originally found on Sporting News Read More